Of course any generalization appears for the moment early

The Icelandic financial crisis will serve pretext to consolidation that of no wait, or even want financial markets The difficulties faced by the small northern economy, through a period of overheating, could give them the opportunity if the excitement never earned by contagion, as in 1997, emerging markets with similar imbalances. Of course, any generalization appears for the moment early. But markets which were mounted very quickly too fast, say some to achieve levels equivalent since the spring of 2001, the opinion can turn suddenly. "Most worrisome is certainly that the topic has flooded field restricted specialists: it is often a sign that it could be something...". ", prevent Isabelle Job and Nicolas Meunier, of the studies branch of Credit Agricole in conclusion of a memorandum on the Icelandic phenomenon.

What is certain is that markets are left to win these days by a more cautious. Investors are beginning to fear that the powerful fuel of the mergers & acquisitions, bringing much of the recent increase in movement, will eventually dry up. According Exane BNP Paribas, about two thirds of the progress recorded by the CAC 40 since the beginning of the year (of the order of 10) comes from values involved directly in real or imagined reconciliation operations.

These transactions accounted for in the first quarter, according to Thomson Financial data, not less than 900 billion dollars in the world, including some 400 billion on the single European continent. They could be more rare now that the conditions for debt may become less attractive. Because underscore Cardif managers (BNP Paribas Group), is the recent deterioration of bond the performance of the loan of American State for 10 years won a 50 basis points since the beginning of the year which prompted companies to rush in the implementation of their external growth strategy to take advantage of a lever effect thattomorrow will be less if long rates continue to be soft.

If, in Europe, the ECB appears determined to delay in its process of upwelling of interest rates before a recovery remains fragile, the US Federal Reserve is facing a much more vigorous growth. The employment figures published Friday in the United States have shown again and militate for new currency hard. Markets have not interpreted it otherwise by promoting a new voltage of bond with yields ten years to the highest since June 2002, come test 5.

Quarterly Americans expected

This phenomenon occurs while the price of a barrel of oil is still under tension and promises to register new heights by the end of this month, in the opinion of analysts. In this context, investors are worried about the evolution of the profits of companies.

That is, if the publication of the quarterly results season, which starts today in the United States with the release numbers of Alcoa, will be under scrutiny. For the time being, the great strategists want to remain optimistic, like Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs, who still found its estimates at the beginning of last week.

If the increase in stock prices has not taken a speculative look, the ability of markets to permanently ignore tensions on energy prices and the increase of rates is not unlimited. François Chevallier, VP Finance, did see not less the CAC 40 to register around 5.600 points by the end of the year. But it also recognizes that the French actions are more dumped, which, with fundamental fellows at most, should limit future earnings or to make them more sports. In the immediate future, the Paris stock exchange could observe a stop at the approach of a four-day Easter weekend truce.