Can accept concessions if it is to stay together

Faces three years in a political crisis without precedent, unable to three months after the legislative elections of June 13 to establish a Government and to establish a road map, the Belgium attempts to every new gust to exorcise his demons in evoking a disaster scenario that would only benefit to put an end to the drama: the split. Since several francophone tenors have, there are about 10 days, broke a taboo by preventing the need to prepare for such an outcome, there are more a broadcast radio or a title in one of the major newspapers that examines this famous "plan B". And not a French which, sheltering behind the declarations of friendship more or less patronizing a Chevenement or a Dupont-Aignan, is already considering linking a day the French speaking part of the Kingdom of Belgium to the France. This is going a little fast in work.

Because the Belgium has really a "plan B" Of course, it is useful in every political camp to shake the spectrum depending on the circumstances. With parsimony for the new Alliance Flemish (ver) of Bart de Wever, the independence party won the legislative elections of June in the North of the country. As all recent studies tend to show: there is no more than 10 of separatists in Flanders. It was probably a minority of the ver itself! Its rulers know well, that during the election campaign preferred to speak of the catch concept of "con" rather than cower in the thatched cottages speaking openly of separatism. With a certain rhetorical trick for the French-speaking Socialist Party, which won the election in the South of the country. Because its leaders wanted to prepare their voters for flexibility (in the clear "he must make concessions in the current negotiations to avoid the breakup of the country")... all by sending a message of firmness to the officials of the ver (of the type "we negotiate hard because this is not the penalty to make concessions if, in the end, is to separate"). Great art.

The reality is that the split is, at this stage, the nightmare and Utopia. First and foremost because the Belgians do not want. According to a survey published on 7 September by the "free Belgium", only 14 of them believe that it is the way forward if discussions remain deadlocked. Even the Flemish are only 15 to want to commit to such end, while 51 prefer leading the current negotiations! Then because such an option, from any simplicity, is particularly complex to implement. Flanders unilaterally declares independence or two communities divorce settlement as the Czechs and Slovaks, it still would find common ground to share the assets and liabilities of the household. Public debt of 330 billion euros, whose weight would increase with the climate of distrust that a split would have on the markets. A pension system, which, in this case, largely benefit the aging population in the North of the country. A seat at the United Nations and NATO, but also a place in the European Union and the euro area. A capital, especially, located in Flanders but populated with more than 90 of francophones and that the community of destiny with Wallonia was only strengthened since 2007. A capital impecunious Flanders today refuses to refinance, but which serves as showcase international, and not only because it is home to the European institutions. Short, a capital that none of the two communities seems ready to give up. And when even: where to draw the new border, while Brussels has forged so many emotional and cultural ties with the South and socio-economic ties with the North of the country What would become the rights of minorities, including the strong francophone minorities installed in the Flemish municipalities Issues whose resolution would require otherwise long and difficult negotiations than those in progress. Because if the split became inevitable perspective, it is likely that the two sides still durciraient their positions. Can accept concessions if it is to stay together. Not question to gift it to separate.

If one day the trail of the burst should nevertheless be explored and all these obstacles overcome, nothing says that Wallonia would be cast as in the arms of the France. Parties "rattachistes" in the South of the country weigh today only 2 to 4! They no doubt engrangeraient of new support if the end of the Belgium to specify: the cultural proximity with the France of the Belgians living along the border and the traditional francophile of the province of Liège give an idea of the importance of their potential reservoirs of voice - some political scientists believe that they CES 20. It is not there.

Attach one day Flanders to the Netherlands, is a view of the spirit. Make an option would be to forget the old liabilities between the old "southern provinces" and the ex - "North Netherlands", which simply led in 1830 to the creation of the Belgium in response to the Dutch yoke. It would also deny that commenced in the interwar years cultural rapprochement between Flemish and Dutch attempts to are from the 1980's, largely light-headed. Finally, it would be mistaken about the nature of the nationalist movement, in Flanders, aimed at the construction of an autonomous nation.