Those awaiting the famous green shoots ("green shots") announcing an out of the next crisis in the United States will probably cooled by the unemployment figures published yesterday. They have a net reversal of trend from the previous month at the trip Barack Obama. With 467.000 destroyed non-agricultural jobs in June, the number of redundancies departed in high rise, after 345,000 deletions in May. These figures "to think", said the US President. They were in any case taken by surprise analysts, who projected the loss of 365.000 jobs, and douché optimism renaissant markets (see page 29). Apart from education and health, almost all of the sectors of the economy, industry, and services are heavily affected.
The unemployment rate climbs so again by 0.1 point, to 9.5, according to figures adjusted for seasonal variations. "Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, job losses have reached 6.5 million and the unemployment rate has gained 4.6 percentage points," said yesterday the Ministry of labour. The number of the unemployed in the United States was now 14.7 million, or more than double for eighteen months, and 6.4 million people say want to find a job without be accounted for in the labour force, recognizes the Ministry, underlining also the increase in the number of long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more) to 4.4 million. 9 Million people are forced to work part-time. Despite some signs of stabilization, including as regards consumption, America seems live the height of the crisis in the real economy. The Fed itself recalled that the country was out of the rut.
"It is very likely that the US unemployment rate exceeds 10 before the end of the year," said economist Jean-François Jamet, consultant to the World Bank, which judge logical effect delay the deterioration of the unemployment report at the beginning of the financial crisis, explaining that the companies first limited case-sensitive before be overtaken by the cash flow difficulties and the risk of bankruptcy. "We are currently in between where companies are under pressure, and where the effects of the stimulus package Obama are not yet fully felt."
Jacques Mistral, Director of economic studies at Ifri, considers however that the pace of the destruction of jobs expected to slow significantly as early as September, not mechanically, because of the end of the process of removal of the manufacturing industry, which again thus produce. "The rebound may be strong, and represent 1 to 2 points of GDP." But this does not, guarantee he added a rebound in the job.
Lack of confidence in the future
In other words, the improvement expected in the second half may be only temporary, at least on the social front. Jacques Mistral stressed strong pressure from businesses on payroll (reduced jobs but salaries also) and the rapid lift of the US savings rate, which reflects their lack of confidence in the future.
In addition, Jean-François Jamet stressed the worrying decline, 20 to 50 depending on the sector, investment in companies. What maintain permanently, beyond perhaps early 2011, unemployment at a high level, and achieve serious consumption, the main engine of us growth. It is thus urgent that the Obama plan, which has pledged 600,000 jobs this summer, is bearing fruit.
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